Alachua County is under a flood watch until 2 a.m. Saturday, with 1 to 3 more inches of rain possible. Storms are also likely Saturday afternoon, during the Gators game.

Gainesville and the rest of Alachua County are under a flood watch until 2 a.m. Saturday. The National Weather Service in Jacksonville issued it at 2:26 a.m. Friday.

The watch covers both the eastern and western Alachua County forecast zones. It also covers Bradford, Union, Gilchrist, Columbia, Suwannee, Hamilton, Baker, Clay, Duval and Nassau counties.

“Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible,” the weather service’s flood watch said.

Why it is raining so hard

The rain is coming from Hurricane Isaias, even though the storm is headed well west of Gainesville. The weather service said a lifting warm front and moisture from Isaias “passing west of the area” will bring waves of moderate to heavy rain through Friday evening.

The forecasters said several inches of rain over the last few days have left the ground saturated. Another 1 to 3 inches, with locally higher amounts, could cause flash flooding of rivers, creeks, streams and low-lying areas.

A flood watch means flooding is possible. It is not a warning. The weather service asked people to watch later forecasts and be ready to act if a flash flood warning is issued.

Where Isaias is

At 8 a.m. Friday, Isaias was about 245 miles south of Pensacola, with maximum sustained winds near 110 mph. That is according to the National Hurricane Center’s 8 a.m. advisory. The center said Isaias was likely to become a major hurricane Friday morning.

It is forecast to make landfall Friday night or early Saturday inside the hurricane warning, which runs from Ocean Springs, Mississippi, to the Bay and Gulf county line in the Florida Panhandle.

No hurricane or tropical storm watch or warning covers Alachua County. The nearest is a storm surge watch on the Gulf coast from the Suwannee River to Yankeetown, about 50 miles southwest of Gainesville.

The forecast for homecoming weekend

The weather service’s forecast for Gainesville, issued Friday morning, calls for:

  • Friday: showers and thunderstorms likely, 70% chance, high near 85. East wind around 15 mph, gusts to 24 mph.
  • Friday night: storms on and off until about 2 a.m., 80% chance, low around 74. A quarter to half an inch of rain.
  • Saturday: a chance of showers early, then showers and thunderstorms between 3 and 5 p.m., 80% chance. High near 88, with a heat index as high as 100. South wind gusting to 24 mph.
  • Sunday: a 50% chance of showers and storms, mostly before 2 p.m. High near 86.

That puts the heaviest risk Saturday in the second half of the Florida-South Carolina game. UF Athletics said kickoff at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium is 12:45 p.m., with gates opening at 10:45 a.m. Its game day notice did not mention a weather change.

UF Athletics listed Friday’s homecoming events as the parade at noon along University Avenue and the 102nd Gator Growl at 7 p.m. Gator Growl is indoors, at the O’Connell Center. Our homecoming parade and Gator Growl guide has the route and tickets.

The Santa Fe River

The Santa Fe River at Worthington Springs, about 17 miles north of Gainesville, was above its action stage Friday. The gauge read 57.33 feet at 9:15 a.m., according to the National Water Prediction Service.

It is forecast to rise to 58.3 feet by 2 p.m. Saturday. Minor flooding begins at 59 feet on that gauge, so the forecast stays just under it.

What it means for you

  • Do not drive through water on the road. Turn around if you cannot see the pavement.
  • Check for a flash flood warning before you head out Friday night. The watch becomes a warning only if flooding is happening or about to.
  • Going to the game? Plan for storms in the afternoon and heat before them. Check the stadium’s clear bag policy on the UF Athletics game day notice before you pack a poncho or bag.
  • Power out? Our power outages page lists who to call for GRU, Clay Electric, Duke Energy and Central Florida Electric customers.
  • Road closures from the weather or game day traffic go on our road construction and closures page.

We will update this story if the weather service issues a warning for Alachua County.